Americas Cup Day Four Removal of Doubt

It was no surprise that Kostecki got the hook. Team Oracle has nothing if not a lot of depth on their bench and Ben Ainslie is certainly a qualified tactician. But it was also no surprise that they achieved the same result with the new guy. Oracle is sailing scared. If they get ahead of TNZ they are nervous that theyll get passed. If they get  behind, they have no confidence that they can pass. This sets them up for mistakes, and they have certainly committed more than enough to send the Cup back to NZ.

In race 6, Oracle won the start and the first run. But then they were so concerned about getting rolled that they failed to stick to a winning strategy. They went around the wrong mark at the leeward gate and that pretty much sealed their fate. Out of phase with the tide and their competition, they struggled to get back over to the right side of the track only to have TNZ pummel them all the way to the weather mark. By then it was over.

It was only a matter of time before TNZ would win a start. In race 7 they did that and simply never looked back. I dont know exactly how many practice days team Oracle has had, with or without Ainslie, but its pretty clear that they have not had the same amount as the Kiwis. It looks to me like the Oracle crew is still on the steep part of the learning curve while TNZ is certainly well beyond that stage. Perhaps Oracles crash last October took too much of a toll in terms of sailing days for the crew. Perhaps there is too much internecine friction within the command structure at team Oracle. Whatever it is, this team is not living up to its potential. The betting now is whether Team Oracle can win even one more race before the Cup is shipped to Auckland.

Americas Cup Day 3 Disaster for Oracle

It was a beautiful day on the Bay, with plenty of wind and lots of current at the start of the days racing. These were perfect conditions for the local boys to show the Kiwis about racing on San Francisco Bay. It was TNZs turn to enter the starting box first and they should have had the advantage, but Oracle was able to maneuver into reasonably good position just to weather of TNZ when the starting flag dropped. They accelerated faster than TNZ which was not able to establish an overlap at the first mark. Oracle looked good on that short reach, showing better straight line boatspeed and rounded clear ahead of TNZ. They maintained their lead all the way to the leeward mark. They came in on starboard tack with a comfortable lead and should have simply rounded the mark and hardened up onto a starboard beat and left it to TNZ to tack, and then keep a loose cover on them. Instead, someone in the back of the boat decided to round the mark and tack immediately. Disaster!

Anyone who has ever sailed a catamaran knows they are slow to tack. When you round a leeward mark you want to at least get back up to speed before you throw the helm over. Somehow, the brain trust aboard Oracle forgot this basic rule. So they rounded the mark and tacked all in the same maneuver, and in that moment they gave up their lead, Their thinking was that it was better to stay on the right hand side of the course to avoid the adverse current of the flood tide. Bad thinking. The first rule of yacht racing is to stay between your competition and the next mark. In a colossal brain-fade, the afterguard aboard Oracle ignored this rule and suffered the consequences. TNZ rounded the mark, hardened up on starboard tack and made short work of Oracles lead. At the first cross they were on port tack and ducked. On the next cross they were well ahead. After that there was no doubt as to who would win this race.

Ive sailed many thousands of miles as tactician and made more dumb moves than I can count, so I know how the crew of Oracle feels. In match racing it can be one bad move and your day is over, and if you still have several legs to race, that feeling of self inflicted wounds only grows. Oracle served this race up to the Kiwis on a silver platter and they knew it at the first cross, if not before. I can imagine the crew muttering under their breath as the were grinding in the sheets on that tack. Im sure the Kiwis were only too glad to snatch this race from the faltering grasp of the Yanks. It was so bad that Team Oracle decided to use their "postponement card" and skip race two today. Watching the body language on that boat, it was clear that this crew was demolished today, and it was probably a good decision for them to bail. Another pounding like that would have been devastating.

So the question is whether Team Oracle has it in them to come out on Thursday and make a race of it. I think this goes to the psychology of the game of yacht racing. Their boat is fast enough. Ive heard talk that its more complicated to sail than the Kiwi boat. Actually, all boats are more complicated to sail until the crew has practiced enough to make all the maneuvers look easy. If Oracle had another six months to sail the boat, all the maneuvers would go flawlessly. However, its possible that a demoralized crew can start thinking they are riding the slower horse and that can become a self fulfilling prophecy. If they dont fix that now, the crew will begin to expect the other guy to beat them. So the gang at Team Oracle needs to do three things if they want salvage this regatta:
1. Stop going the wrong way.
2. Keep the psychology of the crew from surrendering to defeat.
3. Make sure their strategy is one that can win, and make better tactical decisions.

Once again, I have to say that I am surprised at how tactics rather than simply nailing the start have been the deciding factor thus far in the regatta.

Americas Cup Surprises Abound

1. Oracle looked sloppy when a crewman fell overboard before the first start. No surprise there. Its not uncommon for the defender to be rusty early in the series. Without a competitive qualification series against serious competition, defenders often fail to develop the competitive reflexes and instincts that challengers which have struggled through an elimination series have developed.
2. TNZ showed up with their A game. Oracle did not.
3. The word around the yacht club bars was that TNZ had the faster boat. It sure looked that way in the first three races. But maybe thats not so. Oracle showed flashes of boatspeed, but was foiled by poor boat handling and tactical errors in the first three races. They showed something different in race four.
4. A huge surprise was the series of tactical errors Oracle made in the early going. On the other hand it was beautiful to see how they learned from the early races, adapted and found a way to win in race four.
5. Another surprise was how both crews handled the 72s as if they were dinghies. They both showed that they can create opportunities to pass. This is probably the biggest surprise of the event.
6. Conventional wisdom states that the faster boat will win. Why is that? Well, first of all its incredibly demoralizing to be on a boat that you know doesnt have the straight line performance of the competition. On the other hand, its just as empowering to know that your boat is faster than the competition. It gives you the confidence to sail more aggressively, take more risks for greater rewards.
7. It is also true that, all else being equal, he who makes the fewest mistakes wins. Oracles early errors played a large part in handing three victories to TNZ. By the same token, TNZ had a few less than stellar moments and let race four get away from them.
8. Do not underestimate Kostecki. One thing you can be sure of is that the crew of Oracle learned a lot in the first four races and, more than anyone else, John Kostecki took the measure of TNZ. It was not a fluke that Oracle won race four.
9. With the 24 knot limit on windspeed, these boats will probably survive the entire series. Still, they are experiencing apparent winds of over forty knots on the upwind legs. Im expecting more carnage before this event is over.
10. Contrary to popular opinion, including that of yours truly, this is turning into an exciting event and I am looking forward to tomorrows racing!